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Regional topics
Adria region inflation rates stayed in downtrend in 2023 amid high 2022 base. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Slovenia are on the lower end, posting only 4.9% (Jun-23) and 5.7% yoy inflation in Jul-23, respectively. Croatia posted 8% in Jul-23, showing more persistence as the tourist season began, pushing up demand, while N. Macedonia’s rate slid into the one-digit zone recording 8.7% yoy in Jul-23. Serbia expressed the most stubborn inflation (driven by 21.9% growth in food prices), posting 12.4% yoy in the same period.
25.08.2023.
Sectoral analyses
In this report, we describe the key business drivers in telecom industry, review main competitors in Adria region, point to following investments and their impact on traditional industry also outlook on whole telecommunication industry. Telecommunications industry is highly competitive and faces challenges such as low profit margins, high customer turnover and sensitive customer perception.
22.08.2023.
Sectoral analyses
In our analysis we delve into the regional textile industry. To provide context, we compare it to its main export destination - the EU - and offer a global perspective as illustrated by the performance of the some of the largest textile/apparel producers. We sought to illustrate the market positioning and strategies of regional players, compare their performance, and offer insight regarding the regional industry.
04.08.2023.
Regional topics
Industrial production in Adria region is challenged by demand uncertainty, and constrained by lack of skilled labour force, implying that improving labour productivity in the region is a must.
21.07.2023.
Sectoral analyses
The goal of this sector report is to examine the current status of the bakery products producers within the Adria region. The report will focus solely on the wholesale producers without retail network due to large differences in business performance, strategy and challenges between companies in the examined industry and the ones having both revenue streams.
13.07.2023.
Regional topics
Expansion of the global financial markets coming on the heels of multi-year period of cheap money has seen the rise in the global AUM of exchange traded funds (ETFs) to 10 trillion USD, compared to 0.8 trillion USD just around the Global Financial Crisis of late 2000s.
07.07.2023.
Regional topics
Plastic packaging is the fastest growing segment of the packaging industry with a 5.4% CAGR over period of last 20 years. Several big trends are responsible for realized growth but the latest two, sustainability and e-commerce, continue to challenge and shape the industry. In this report we give overview of Adria region plastic packaging industry, circular economy challenges and capabilities of industry players to adapt to ongoing changes.
03.07.2023.
Regional topics
Commodity prices finally slowed down in 2023 (up to mid-June), as release came from warmer winter (for energy prices), Black Sea Grain Initiative (for cereals) and weaker demand from the world’s main economies (notably from weaker China reopening). Some commodities showed price movements in the other direction, e.g., sugar, which is affected by bad weather, but overall, the whole market saw a decline, consequently releasing inflation pressures.
23.06.2023.
Macro outlook
Highlight of this report is an upgrade of our GDP forecasts for 2023 for most of Adria region countries. Namely, for the biggest economies in the region previously we were forecasting a real GDP stagnation this year alongside low single-digit growth rates elsewhere in the region.
16.06.2023.
Regional topics
Global equity&bond are in a positive tone in five months of 2023, due to slower inflation and solid company earnings expectations (in main world indices) in next 12M. What is still keeping at least some risk for sporadic corrections present is the remaining need for monetary tightening as well as its magnitude. Equity market in Adria region in the 5M2023 displayed solid performance, except B&H indexes which underperformed. SBITOP, CROBEX10 and BELEX15 outperformed broader benchmark STOXX600.
09.06.2023.
Sectoral analyses
In this report we explore the main trends, tailwinds, and headwinds in the regional tobacco industry. We recognize the Adria Region attractiveness for tobacco and divide the main players into two principal subgroups – producers and distributors. We also look at the global picture, examining the performance and strategies of the largest tobacco players.
01.06.2023.
Regional topics
The 2022 was highlighted by benchmark interest rates moving from extreme lows to high levels not seen in a decade. As inflation rates shows persistence, the policy rates are still biased upwards, and we see them „higher for longer“. The transmission to loan interest rates was, and still is, challenged by ample liquidity in the banking system. Our main thesis is that the ECB will be adjusting policy to keep policy rates in the next years higher than in the past 10 years (even if somewhat lower than currently) alongside gradually squeezing out excess liquidity from the system.
26.05.2023.
